Key Highlights

• Bitcoin's performance has been marked by its first post-halving year closing in the red, breaking a 14-year cycle.
• El Salvador continues to invest heavily in Bitcoin alongside AI, positioning itself against traditional economies.
• Tether has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, becoming the fifth-largest holder.

Market Sentiment

• Trend: Mixed, with signs of bullish undercurrents despite recent poor performance.
• Bearish Factors: Analysts point to a potentially bearish shift indicated by a shooting star on the yearly chart.
• Bullish Factors: Institutional activities, such as spot ETFs snapping a 7-day losing streak and significant purchases by Tether, suggest underlying strength.

Bitcoin Forecast

Analysts predict Bitcoin could see a rise of 10% in early January based on historical patterns. For the longer term, predictions range widely from a stabilization between $80K and $140K in 2026, with potential spikes up to $170K or even $250K by the end of 2027 if certain conditions are met.

Key Events to Watch

• Charles Schwab's potential adoption of Bitcoin spot trading in 2026 could further legitimize cryptocurrency investments among traditional investors.
• The impact of regulatory developments, especially with the return of key Bitcoin futures policymakers at the CFTC.
• Continued monitoring of Tether's activities, given its significant market influence as a major Bitcoin holder.

Trading Insights

Traders should watch for increased volatility around key regulatory announcements and institutional movements. The mixed sentiment and breaking of historical price patterns suggest both risk and opportunity, demanding a balanced trading strategy with a good risk management plan.

Top 3 Impact Stories

• El Salvador's aggressive push on Bitcoin and AI, potentially setting a precedent for other nations.
• Tether's aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin, influencing liquidity and market dynamics.
• The breaking of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle, which could redefine long-term price expectations and investment strategies.

Main Conclusion

While Bitcoin's immediate outlook shows signs of bullish recovery, the breaking of its historical 4-year cycle introduces new uncertainties. Investors should remain vigilant, considering both macroeconomic factors and significant institutional behaviors influencing the market.